WTI Crude Oil Futures (March) 

Yesterday’s Settlement: 70.74, down -0.55 [-0.77%] 

There was little news yesterday with the U.S. being on holiday. Ukraine – Russian ceasefire talks are progressing which may have added to weakness in the futures market.    

Today, futures are higher by +0.47 [+0.66%] to 71.18

A story broke yesterday that OPEC+ is considering delaying output hikes scheduled to begin in April of this year. If these hikes are delayed once again, it would leave the global balance sheet considerably tight once sanctioned Iranian barrels are accounted for. 

If this were to happen, it would be the bullish catalyst this market needs to make another leg higher. Still, the threat of a Ukraine-Russian ceasefire remains. While this will likely take months to finalize, and is no guarantee that Russian oil will begin flowing again, the market will likely see this as bearish.

Technical Analysis:

Our major, three-star level of 70.53-70.64*** has held firm. Futures have rallied this morning back up to our major three-star level of 71.25-71.63***. The chart is setting up for a tight and sideways trade between our two levels right now. A settlement above the 71.25-71.63*** level would signal bullish momentum enough to bring this sideways trade back up into the 71 level. Our key for the day is a trade above / below….

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